What's likely to be more collectable.....

[WIDEOPN-X5]

I was curious to hear from the M Fanatics what the view is on whether an E36 or E46 M3 would be more collectable in the long run. I am sure its a multifaceted answer and right off the bat I am guessing the questions would start at least with;

1. previous ownership and servicing records
2. mileage and whether the displayed mileage is verifiable
3. in terms of the E46 whether it is SMG or 3 pedal model
4. condition of paint and interior leather

and so on and so on.

edit: may as well throw the E92 M3 into the mix - personally I never like the E90/92 M3 with the "dbl cowl dash" (iDrive screen) much preferring the clean dash layout. Those are quite rare it seems.

What say the M Fanatics??

 

[AdiS]

I suppose future growth in value or "collectibility" depends on a few things, but most notably:
- how special the car is (what makes it desirable or unique)
- how rare it is (supply)
- will there be wealthy buyers for it in future (demand)

The first point is entirely subjective, and I usually just rely on what I find personally interesting or special. If you're an enthusiast and you buy what you like, the chances are there will be other like minded enthusiasts.

Supply tends to dwindle over time, where even a car that was in high supply originally, as time moves on, nice, well preserved ones become rare. This seems to be happening to E36 and E46 M3s, though there has also been a general rising tide in the market amongst all modern classics.

Demand tends to grow for a particular car at the time when the generation that was young when the car was current, and build the dream of owning one, start to come into a financial position to buy them. This can take anywhere form 10-30 years. It's worth pointing out that collectible cars can also age out of their appreciation. 60/70s American Muscle cars aren't nearly as valuable as they were about 10-15years ago because the demographic that fell in love with them and drove up the demand, either owns them already or has aged out of the market.

In terms of the 4 points you raised - those are only relevant to choosing a given example to buy, rather than comparing different models.
For an E46 M3, it's easy: A facelift/late model manual coupe will always be the most desireable. The lower the mileage, and the more preserved the interior, the more probability it has to increase in value. Rare or unique colour combinations can also make one example more desireable than the next. If i had to generalise this principle, buying the most rare or "enthusiast" version of a particular car usually leads to the highest potential appreciation in value. E.g. CSL vs Manual Coupe vs SMG Convertible; 911 ST vs GT3

Personally I don't love the idea of buying cars as investments. Im really sad that the world treats them like asset classes now and are owned by people who dont use them and appreicate them for what they were intended for: driving.

But that's just me.

 

[Katanator]

I had a conversation on this earlier today. E36, 46, 90 are the bottom of the curve, they should appreciate over time in general as they become affordable for the previous generations as childhood dreams and scarcity creep in. Same story for 996 and 997 porsches being the bottom curve. As they age they will appreciate and newer models still depreciate to form the new bottom over time. Of course a parallel shift of the curve upwards over time also possible.

 

[TurboLlew]

Another thread that will soon be filled with posts showing no understanding of statistics, investment principles, definitions of depreciation and appreciation, the concept of inflation or indeed the concept of time itself.

Personally I don't love the idea of buying cars as investments. Im really sad that the world treats them like asset classes now and are owned by people who dont use them and appreicate them for what they were intended for: driving.

I am here too.

The other sad reality is that they are not being well kept or maintained, pickled cars and stored cars end up with SERIOUS mechanical issues, let alone insect and vermin infestations, mold growth etc.

I had a conversation on this earlier today. E36, 46, 90 are the bottom of the curve, they should appreciate over time in general as they become affordable for the previous generations as childhood dreams and scarcity creep in. Same story for 996 and 997 porsches being the bottom curve. As they age they will appreciate and newer models still depreciate to form the new bottom over time. Of course a parallel shift of the curve upwards over time also possible.

This graph illustrates AdiS's point. The E30 is being driven by scarcity. It really is the only real unicorn since it was never available locally. The guys who really wanted them brought them in themselves at huge expense (money-no-object expense). There is a MINUTE pool of people that have the means and desire to buy these and they are unlikely to trade hands in a hurry. The rest of the M3s are meh - all WELL below current pricing (which, if they were really investments, would be tracking above the new price, since inflation-adjusted there is not much difference - people just got poorer).

I was curious to hear from the M Fanatics what the view is on whether an E36 or E46 M3 would be more collectable in the long run. I am sure its a multifaceted answer and right off the bat I am guessing the questions would start at least with;

1. previous ownership and servicing records
2. mileage and whether the displayed mileage is verifiable
3. in terms of the E46 whether it is SMG or 3 pedal model
4. condition of paint and interior leather

and so on and so on.

edit: may as well throw the E92 M3 into the mix - personally I never like the E90/92 M3 with the "dbl cowl dash" (iDrive screen) much preferring the clean dash layout. Those are quite rare it seems.

What say the M Fanatics??

Ultimately just buy what you like and what you can afford to maintain perfectly with no cutting of corners. Over a period of time it will eventually become one of the better examples and become an outlier in value. An E46 6MT is going to be the safest bet in terms of a car you will genuinely enjoy owning IMHO, that won't break the bank relative to the others, doesn't have unobtanium parts (as is becoming the case with older cars than this) and will likely always have a buyer of some kind wanting it. It is also not high enough in value that it isolates your buyer pool to 'real collectors' and lottery winners.

I also just want to add that the recent drama at Ferris exposed something we all wonder about: the asking prices of obvious shitbox grade cars. Granted this was an S2000 - but it was really trashed and yet the asking price was R499K. The car was 'sold' sight unseen to someone for 379K... they were willing to drop a quarter of the price and most likely even more. As for the rest of the drama, well it seems that the car was worth MUCH less than even that.

In terms of values and investments, these cars tend to have their time in the sun and then it ends up being over quite quickly. You need to still love what you have if you're building a collection IMHO. CarCandy had an E36 M3 for under 300K the other day and it didn't look bad at a glance anyway. There was a time not long ago where guys were asking 750K for cars that looked (IMO) worse. The reality is that the guys who lusted after the E36 as kids (ie: Me) are now heading to mid-40s and either got their fix already or the urge has passed. As with the chopper and muscle car hype, the cycle will subside. Not that the cars will necessarily tank in value, but don't expect them to grow (certainly not relative to input costs and inflation).

 

[Sibonelo]

the market always corrects itself. Look I think over the past 6 year since covid the market went a bit dizzy. Whether its from people sitting at home bored and thinking about projects etc I think across the market the prices far outstripped the value be it BMW or Porsche or whatever. Precovid you could get a E46 M3 for 200's in descent shape. I think like Llew mentioned these cars aren't cheap to keep on the road. So at R200k or so you spend R150k you have a cracking car. Now if you buying a R500 M3 with another R150 to R200k bill pending it becomes a bit too much. I think if you buy any M car and you can keep it well maintained you will get your money back to a degree. With this crazy market you had people making a living out of this " bubble" demand which I personally think will subside over time. Times are getting tougher again financially for everyone and spending R600 up on a " project" irrespective of whether its a dream or not is not as easy. I have seem a gradually cooling in E36, E46 and likes. a year ago people wanted R750 to 900 for an E36. My 2cents, buy it, keep it in descent condition, drive and maybe you will come out with some money. I was at the VSCA auction over the weekend, there was a minter Camaro convertible, I am not well versed in Muscle cars but I think it sold for 300k or something. As mentioned above that car few years back is an easy 700k.