discussion Diesel prices

[Pisancho]

Hello Comrade.

What colour is your V Class..

I wish I had a V class.

 

[TBP88]

Exactly these reasons, that's where the conundrum has been sitting for me. And as the price of EVs starts to come down and the plethora of PHEVs available, it makes sense to start looking in that direction. The diesel prices are getting insane, and all the pitfalls that come with that specifically around transportation, driving up inflation, general costs etc. etc. Although I don't own a diesel, sitting with the V8 in the garage the car is going to start getting used less. Not that the X4 is much more frugal but decisions will need to be made. BYD Dolphin Surf FTW!

Fun car for fun, EV for daily. Simple maths.

I’ve been crunching the numbers on trading in my BMW F30 320d (worth +-R150k) for a R400k entry-level EV. On paper, everyone says "go electric to save money," but if you actually look at the capital outlay, it’s a hard sell.

The Setup:

• Current Car: BMW 320d (Paid off, worth circa R150k).
• New EV: R400k (e.g., BYD Dolphin or Cross PHEV).
• The Gap: R250,000 extra out of my pocket.

The Running Costs:

• 320d: At 5.5L/100km and Diesel at ~R26.50/L, I’m paying R145 per 100km.
• EV: At 16kWh/100km and home charging at ~R3.50/kWh, it’s R56 per 100km.
• Savings: I save R89 for every 100km I drive.

The "Payback" Problem:
To recover that R250,000 price difference purely through fuel savings, I need to drive:
If I drive 20,000km a year, it will take me 14 years just to break even on the purchase price. This doesn't even account for the interest if I were to finance that R250k gap—which would push the "break-even" point even further out.
The Verdict:
Unless your diesel is falling apart and facing R50k+ in repairs (injectors, turbo, DPF), or you have a massive solar array at home to charge for "free," the math says: Keep the diesel.
You aren't saving money by spending R250k to save R89 at the pump.

My 320d's are going nowhere.

Your problem is comparing apples with oranges. Do the same maths on a BYD at 400k, vs any other new car at 400k and how long the breakeven is. You can't compare "what if I didn't capital outlay R250k vs what if I did".

Eskom is obviously not in great FINANCIAL straits, but in terms of supply it's good to go, add to that the quickly reducing costs of going off grid and setting up a solar system, very soon an EV will be by far the better solution. We are very unlikely to have load shedding any time soon (as indicated above, thanks for the info!) As I said, are EVs fun? No. Are they good? Yes?

40yrs ago, not everyone had a microwave, you could warm your food on the stove and it'd be better etc. etc. Now everyone has a microwave. Does microwave left overs taste as nice as a fresh meal? No. Does microwave leftovers fill your belly and keep you going? Yes. Same analogy here applies, an EV is an appliance, it has no emotional appeal *PURELY* consumer appeal. So treat it as such, a brand new BYD is around R350k for the most basic model. If that depreciates like other EVs in 3-4yrs you're talking 2nd hand at sub 200k... That *HAS* to be a consideration. Guys are asking over 200k for normal E46s ffs!

 

[NBN]

Also not accurate. The only diesel they burn is what is contractually obligated by law to do based on the contracts signed years ago. They burn only the bare minimum.

Now I look like an Eskom supporter when I actually dont like them and my home is off-grid because I didnt want to pay them a cent for fixed charges or the rising electricity costs.

As an aside, do you have any insight into that whole solar registration bs that eskom is trying to pull? I have a small 5kw setup and didn't register

 

[Pisancho]

As an aside, do you have any insight into that whole solar registration bs that eskom is trying to pull? I have a small 5kw setup and didn't register

Don't register. They have no way of enforcing it and OUTA has also confirmed that noone should register. Eskom has no legal ground for it. A COC is all that is required for your home with solar.

 

[individj]

Also not accurate. The only diesel they burn is what is contractually obligated by law to do based on the contracts signed years ago. They burn only the bare minimum.

Now I look like an Eskom supporter when I actually dont like them and my home is off-grid because I didnt want to pay them a cent for fixed charges or the rising electricity costs.

Does Eskom use diesel? Will the price of the diesel they purchase be effected by the increases?

 

[modocrat]

Does Eskom use diesel? Will the price of the diesel they purchase be effected by the increases?

Only when the "coal gets wet"

 

[Pisancho]

Does Eskom use diesel? Will the price of the diesel they purchase be effected by the increases?

They got these OCGT generators during load shedding days. The companies that gave them the generators stipulated that they must run a certain minimum amount every month (so that the company that supplied them still makes money in the event load shedding stoppd after they fixed their powerstations). So until those contracts end they will be forced to keep using every month. But it is a fraction of what it used to be back in the day.

And yeah, they are affected. If this Iran war started back when LS peaked, we would really be in for it.

 

[DRCraig]

Your problem is comparing apples with oranges. Do the same maths on a BYD at 400k, vs any other new car at 400k and how long the breakeven is. You can't compare "what if I didn't capital outlay R250k vs what if I did".

Eskom is obviously not in great FINANCIAL straits, but in terms of supply it's good to go, add to that the quickly reducing costs of going off grid and setting up a solar system, very soon an EV will be by far the better solution. We are very unlikely to have load shedding any time soon (as indicated above, thanks for the info!) As I said, are EVs fun? No. Are they good? Yes?

40yrs ago, not everyone had a microwave, you could warm your food on the stove and it'd be better etc. etc. Now everyone has a microwave. Does microwave left overs taste as nice as a fresh meal? No. Does microwave leftovers fill your belly and keep you going? Yes. Same analogy here applies, an EV is an appliance, it has no emotional appeal *PURELY* consumer appeal. So treat it as such, a brand new BYD is around R350k for the most basic model. If that depreciates like other EVs in 3-4yrs you're talking 2nd hand at sub 200k... That *HAS* to be a consideration. Guys are asking over 200k for normal E46s ffs!

I’m not choosing between two R400k cars -I’d be selling a perfectly good BMW F30 320d and spending an extra R250k purely to try save on running costs.

That’s what a lot of people are actually considering -selling a reliable ICE daily just to move to an EV for “savings”. On those numbers, it doesn’t really make financial sense.

If I was buying a new car anyway, then sure, ICE vs EV is a different conversation.

 

[rodga]

I normally commute 4 days per week on my bike and one day the Z4. Then everything else my Everest V6 diesel.
Now commuting with the bike is 5 days per week, come rain, hail, cold or sunshine. My bikes uses 5.5L/100km (and half the time to get to work) and both cars average about 14.5. So with petrol cheaper than diesel, if I don't need 4 seats the Z4 now gets preference. This is going to hurt especially if diesel goes to R35ish next month

How does your bike use 5,5l/100km???
My e46 330d is sitting on 6,8l/100km (OBD) and thats over 10k km of driving!

 

[Pisancho]

How does your bike use 5,5l/100km???
My e46 330d is sitting on 6,8l/100km (OBD) and thats over 10k km of driving!

He probably rides like a madman. I get about the same as him on my 1000, but it's hard accelerations and sitting at 180 a lot of the time. Do the same in your diesel, and you won't get anywhere near 6.8. Bikes allow crazy riding, but you still get the economy of an economical car.

I also commute on bikes like him, typically rotating between my 1000 and a 650. The 650 does 4 litres per 100. The 1000 around 5.5 like him. Car is a weekend warrior and for gym trips during the week. I somehow still do 15k km a year on the car alone, as I don't sit in one place on the weekend and public holidays.

 

[TBP88]

I’m not choosing between two R400k cars -I’d be selling a perfectly good BMW F30 320d and spending an extra R250k purely to try save on running costs.

That’s what a lot of people are actually considering -selling a reliable ICE daily just to move to an EV for “savings”. On those numbers, it doesn’t really make financial sense.

If I was buying a new car anyway, then sure, ICE vs EV is a different conversation.

Yeah, but you're not making the like for like comparison. Sure, selling a paid off car, to finance a new car at 2.5x the cost, with the logic being "I could save money", is obviously nonsensical.

The correct question is more the following:

At some point in the future you *WILL* sell your 320d, and at that moment, what car makes the most sense going forward. Anyone on this thread thinking of selling a paid off car, to finance a new car at 2x the cost and hoping it comes out clean would need to essentially have the viewpoint that the iran war becomes hotter than any conflict since the end of WW2 and global oil supply contracts by 50%+.

 

[firaz]

I easily get close to 1000km on my e90 320d on a tank, so 28*55l=1 540.
Same distance in let’s say the equivalent 320i would be almost double, 23*110l=2 530.

Still winning even if the petrol equivalent was lighter on fuel.

Jus my 2c.


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[Regal]

How does your bike use 5,5l/100km???
My e46 330d is sitting on 6,8l/100km (OBD) and thats over 10k km of driving!

Most bikes are not very efficient unless you REALLY nanny them. I get 5 l/100km on a 300 cc doing a 10 km daily round trip. Most people have bigger bikes.

 

[individj]

lol at you diesel drivers, Jeremy did warn you...

Meanwhile me in a V8 petrol Range Rover been crying before the price went up, I am now battle hardened

im using mine as a Jerry Can currently ... I think im gna pull out the Champ bakkie and fuel it from the RR

 

[Pisancho]

Most bikes are not very efficient unless you REALLY nanny them. I get 5 l/100km on a 300 cc doing a 10 km daily round trip. Most people have bigger bikes.

To get a 300 moving you have to ring it out in the high revs. Cruising at 160 on my 1000 it averages around 5.5l/100. The engine is barely working and still have half the rev range to play with. If I lower the speed to 120 then it goes below 5.

 

[Mitchenator]

How does your bike use 5,5l/100km???
My e46 330d is sitting on 6,8l/100km (OBD) and thats over 10k km of driving!

I ride a 2023 1250GS at an average speed of 80 - 90kph and thats about what I get. One way is 20km with 16km of that on the highway. My old 850GS got 4.5L/100km but the 1250 is just plain heavy on fuel and I was disappointed when I upgraded from the 850 to the 1250 but it is what it is. And that is over 24000km of mostly commuting in 2 years.

 

[rodga]

I ride a 2023 1250GS at an average speed of 80 - 90kph and thats about what I get. One way is 20km with 16km of that on the highway. My old 850GS got 4.5L/100km but the 1250 is just plain heavy on fuel and I was disappointed when I upgraded from the 850 to the 1250 but it is what it is. And that is over 24000km of mostly commuting in 2 years.

I really thought they would be lighter

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[Mitchenator]

He probably rides like a madman. I get about the same as him on my 1000, but it's hard accelerations and sitting at 180 a lot of the time. Do the same in your diesel, and you won't get anywhere near 6.8. Bikes allow crazy riding, but you still get the economy of an economical car.

I also commute on bikes like him, typically rotating between my 1000 and a 650. The 650 does 4 litres per 100. The 1000 around 5.5 like him. Car is a weekend warrior and for gym trips during the week. I somehow still do 15k km a year on the car alone, as I don't sit in one place on the weekend and public holidays.

I dont ride like a madman - see my previous reponse but I agree with everything else.

BTW, I was in the UK recently for my brothers wedding and rented a station wagon. Turned out they gave me a nice 320i Touring Motorsport. I drove it from London to Newcastle (440km) and averaged 5.6L/100km - so exactly the same as my bike with 4 in the car and FULLY LOADED with luggage. And I drove at exactly he speed limit the entire trip - whether 20mph or 70. That was super impressive. I did a total of 2000km in that car at an average of 6.8.

 

[Pisancho]

I ride a 2023 1250GS at an average speed of 80 - 90kph and thats about what I get. One way is 20km with 16km of that on the highway. My old 850GS got 4.5L/100km but the 1250 is just plain heavy on fuel and I was disappointed when I upgraded from the 850 to the 1250 but it is what it is. And that is over 24000km of mostly commuting in 2 years.

Thats why you buy a Kawasaki. I have the Versys 1000

 

[Pisancho]

I dont ride like a madman - see my previous reponse but I agree with everything else.

BTW, I was in the UK recently for my brothers wedding and rented a station wagon. Turned out they gave me a nice 320i Touring Motorsport. I drove it from London to Newcastle (440km) and averaged 5.6L/100km - so exactly the same as my bike with 4 in the car and FULLY LOADED with luggage. And I drove at exactly he speed limit the entire trip - whether 20mph or 70. That was super impressive. I did a total of 2000km in that car at an average of 6.8.

This is my heavy car. 7.1 per 100 on a tuned hybrid turbo N55. I think its all to do with how heavy you are on the foot. In the bikes case, the hand. I typically get this economy on all my trips.